Futbalové bitky o Britániu
Football Battles of Britain
Abstract
In the article we connect football with mathematics, or more precisely football with statistics. We chose the most famous football match in the world - the North West derby. These matches between Liverpool FC and Manchester United FC are known as Battle of England or Battle of Britain. By using their results from 1906 (only in the First division and later in Premier League), we want to predict the results of the next matches, or at least the winner. Finally we compared our predictions with the predictions of bookmakers.
- Keywords
- derby, forecast, model, ordinal regression
- Classification
- K80, K90
References
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2. Forrest, D., Goddard, J., Simmons, R. 2005. Odds-setters as forecasters. The case of English football. International Journal of Forecasting 21 (3): 551-564.
3. Goddard, J. 2005. Regression models for forecasting goals and matchresults in association football. International Journal of Forecasting 21 (2): 331-340.
4. Graham, I., Stott, H. 2008. Predicting bookmaker odds and efficiency for uk football. Applied Economics, 40:99–109.
5. Hvattum, L. M., Arntzen, H. 2010. Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football. International Journal of Forecasting 26 (3): 460-470.
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9. https://www.eloratings.net/
10. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_F.C.%E2%80%93Manchester_United_F.C._rivalry
11. https://www.enfa.co.uk/
12. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2049908/211-countries-tuned-watch-Liverpool-vs-Manchester-United.html
13. https://www.football-data.co.uk/englandm.php
2. Forrest, D., Goddard, J., Simmons, R. 2005. Odds-setters as forecasters. The case of English football. International Journal of Forecasting 21 (3): 551-564.
3. Goddard, J. 2005. Regression models for forecasting goals and matchresults in association football. International Journal of Forecasting 21 (2): 331-340.
4. Graham, I., Stott, H. 2008. Predicting bookmaker odds and efficiency for uk football. Applied Economics, 40:99–109.
5. Hvattum, L. M., Arntzen, H. 2010. Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football. International Journal of Forecasting 26 (3): 460-470.
6. de Jong, P., Heller, G. Z. 2008. Generalized linear models for insurance data. CambridgeUniversity Press.
7. Lasek, J., Szlávik, Z., Bhulai, S. 2013. The predictive power of ranking systems in association football. International Journal of Applied Pattern Recognition, 1 (1), 27-46.
8. Wunderlich, F., Memmert, D. 2018. The Betting Odds Rating System: Using soccer forecasts to forecast soccer. PLoS ONE 13(6):e0198668. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0198668
9. https://www.eloratings.net/
10. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_F.C.%E2%80%93Manchester_United_F.C._rivalry
11. https://www.enfa.co.uk/
12. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2049908/211-countries-tuned-watch-Liverpool-vs-Manchester-United.html
13. https://www.football-data.co.uk/englandm.php